Abstract
An ensemble wind generation forecasting technique is described in this paper, based on a fusion of publicly available wind forecasts, persistence hold techniques and statistical methods. The forecasting method is applied to the Northern Irish power system where increasing capacity of installed wind generation makes forecast profiles an essential tool. The analysis is based on 6 months of wind generation and wind forecast data from the year 2006. The analysis incorporates the use of centrally controlled distributed diesel generation to cater for instances when the forecast wind generation is over-predicted and a shortfall exists. Power system scheduling software is used to simulate thermal plant operation with and without the described wind forecast. The work highlights the improvements in system efficiency and reduced fuel costs that are possible through application of a basic forecasting technique when combined with flexible distributed generation.
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