Distribución potencial de Polylepis incana en los Andes ecuatorianos para estudios de fisiología vegetal y planes de rehabilitación forestal

Abstract

Land use change and global warming pose significant threats to biodiversity and affect species distribution throughout the planet. Both factors operate at different scales, so even spatial features that allow to evaluate these factors properly are relevant to the early identification of extinction risks, especially in highland ecosystems. This study aims to model the ecological niche of Polylepis incana Kunth and its future distribution areas based on bioclimatic variables in the Ecuadorian Andes, as to promote conservation strategies. By analyzing high-resolution climate data employing MaxEnt and QGIS software, the appropriate habitat for P. incana was modeled, and the main climatic variables that best predict its potential distribution were identified. In addition, by employing herbal data we evaluated the status of the species in the predicted habitats and related them to species distribution models. The results show that the suitable habitat for P. incana is ~11393 km2 along the Ecuadorian Andes; out of the total area, 84009.90 ha correspond to the optimal site’s category. The two most influential variables contributed 91.70% to the model. Also, 5.53% of the total area —distributed among 9 protected areas in the Eastern and Western mountain range— was optimal to host this species. Furthermore, it is determined that, for the normal development of the species in relation to bioclimatic variables, the threshold ranges from 4.2 to 10.40 °C and from 138 to 332 mm of precipitation, with high nitrogen re-translocation values in the soil. This study provides valuable information that will undoubtedly help Ecuadorian local populations, authorities and researchers to generate highland-ecosystem conservation actions as a climate change combat mechanism.