Distribución potencial de la especie Puya raimondii e importancia de las áreas naturales protegidas frente al cambio climático

Abstract

The Queen of the Andes (Puya raimondii) is considered an ‘endangered’ species due to habitat fragmentation and loss, and declining populations throughout its range. We used ecological niche modeling in the context of multiple climate change scenarios to estimate the potential present and future (2050 and 2070) distribution of the species, analyzing the effects of habitat loss and the importance of natural protected areas across its range. Our models predicted a range of 137522 km2 and a remaining habitat of 69356 km2 between Perú and Bolivia, reduced 54.4% by human activities. On average, climate change will reduce the potential range by 41.3% in 2050 and 51.1% in 2070. Natural protected areas are not significant for the conservation of the species since they cover only 7.5% of its distribution, we observed a reduction of 41.7-47.5% of the range of the species in these areas due to climate change. Our results offer a perspective by which climate change studies can define conservation units and climate change strategies.