Distinguishing Epidemiological Curve of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Cases in Iraq: How It Does not Follow the Epidemic Curve of China

Abstract

Governments around the world must respond quickly to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Because the numbers of COVID-19 cases in Iraq do not follow the cases in China, we highlight the significant role of government response and population demography, mainly how the quarantine and age structure of the Iraqi population explains the differences in COVID-19 cases or fatality cases compared to China, and eventually to Italy and the United Kingdom (UK). In this study, we used the reported cases of confirmed COVID-19 in Iraq from the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the epidemiological curve of COVID-19 cases in Iraq. Then we compared our estimates with the epidemiological curve of reported COVID-19 cases in China, Italy, and the UK. The epidemiological curve of COVID-19 cases in Iraq illustrates the risks of explosive growth in COVID-19 cases. When aligning four sets of the epidemiological curve, the curve trend of the COVID-19 cases has a different level between Iraq, China, Italy, and the UK (due to a difference in “quarantine start” dates), the epidemiological curve of COVID-19 in Iraq was low due to the quick response from the local government in applying the quarantine. The COVID-19 death cases in Iraq are lower than these countries as their older adults are the main percentage in their population demography for them. An investigation in the neighboring country of Iraq, Jordan, showed the relative similarity in the epidemiological curve for Iraq (because of the similarities in population demography and “quarantine initiation”). In conclusion, the adequate government's response in Iraq illustrated how the epidemiological curve of COVID-19 cases in Iraq does not follow the epidemiological curve in China. If the response to quarantine is as now into the end of this month, the COVID-19 cases in Iraq may reach approximately 1,540 by April 30th, 2020. Nevertheless, if the quarantine is broken, the cases could reach the numbers that are currently recorded in Italy and the UK. On the other hand, the COVID-19 cases may be less with an increase in weather temperature.