Abstract
A simple method, employing 50% confidence intervals, may be used to distinguish sudden from gradual extinctions. In cases where the fossil record is consistent with a sudden disappearance, the expected position of the extinction horizon may als o be determined. Analysis of the fossil ammonites on Seymour Island shows that their pattern of disappearances is consistent with a sudden mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary, even though a literal reading of the fossil record shows they disappeared gradually over a stratigraphic interval 10–50 m below the boundary. It is striking that the iridium anomaly on Seymour Island falls within the stratigraphic interval determined by the 50% confidence intervals to be the most likely place for the K-T boundary (assuming there was a sudden disappearance of ammonites at the boundary). However, a computer simulation of the Seymour Island ammonite fossil record indicates a wide range of other extinction scenarios, including gradual extinctions ranging over as much as 20 m (α = 0.05), that are consistent with the ammonite fossil record; without saturation collecting near the K-T boundary it will be impossible to distinguish between gradual and sudden extinction scenarios for the Seymour Island ammonites based on the ammonite fossil record alone.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have