Distal determinants of fertility decline: Evidence from 640 Indian districts

Abstract

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe relationship between fertility and its distal as well as proximate determinants has been the subject of a long-standing and continued inquiry among demographers, economists, sociologists, and researchers in other fields. Although a relatively clearly defined set of social, economic, and demographic factors has been identified as the key driver of fertility change in theoretical literature, empirical evidence suggests that key drivers are highly context-specific, with diverging patterns across countries and time (Bongaarts and Watkins, 1996; Potter, Schmettermann, and Cavenaghi 2002; Brown and Guinnane 2002; Mason 1997; Harttgen and Vollmer 2014; Myrskyla, Kohler, and Billari 2009).In terms of distal determinants, the most commonly identified variables are mother's educational attainment, child mortality, poverty, and a broad set of economic proxies (AksAn 2014; Amin, Casterline, and Spess 2007; Basu 2002; Bulatao and Lee 1983; Caldwell and McDonald 1982; Cleland 2001; Dreze and Murthi 2001; Eastwood and Lipton 1999; Jain and Nag 1986; Merrick 2002; Robey 1990). Major progress has been made for all three factors at the global level: under-five mortality declined from an average of 100 to an average of 50 deaths per 1000 live births (UNICEF 2014) between 1990 and 2013; average schooling for women aged 15 years and above increased from 6.14 years in 1990 to 7.89 years in 2010 (Barro and Lee 2011), and the percentage of population living below the poverty line at US$1.25 per day per person at 2005 PPP declined from 43% in 1990 to 17% by 2011 (IBRD 2015).Cross country analyses have shown a positive and significant association of change in fertility and socioeconomic development (Bongaarts and Watkins 1996). The mean predicted change in TFR due to change in female education in the micro-regions of Brazil (rural) was -0.14 in 1960-1970, -0.64 in 1970-1980, and -0.67 in 1980- 1991, and that of under-five mortality was between -0.07 and -0.10 during the same period (Potter, Schmertmann, and Cavenaghi 2002). Female literacy and child mortality accounted for half of the overall TFR reduction; i.e., TFR reduced by 0.7 between 1981 and 1991 in 326 districts of India (Dreze and Murthi 2001). Empirical evidence on the links between poverty and fertility appears more mixed and has fuelled the population and poverty debate (Merrick 2002). The cross-sectional analyses found a negative association of fertility rates with economic growth and income distribution (Eastwood and Lipton 1999). Studies found a strong and positive association between demographic change and poverty reduction in Brazil, with demographic change accounting for nearly 15% of economic growth (Barro and Lee 2011; Barros et al. 2001). Studies from 40 developing countries found a positive association of fertility with infant mortality and a negative association of fertility with female education, but did not find a significant association between fertility and poverty (Jain and Ross 2012). On the other hand, the root cause of fertility reduction in Bangladesh and Addis Ababa has been attributed to poverty (Gurmu and Mace 2008; Kabeer 2001). The association of population growth and poverty was weak in the states of India (Vande 1985). Recent studies also suggest that poverty has limited power in explaining fertility reduction in the Indian states (Mcnay, Arokiasamy, and Cassen 2003; Mohanty and Ram 2011).2. Theoretical backgroundA large and growing demographic, economic, and sociological literature has aimed at understanding the fundamental drivers of demographic change in general, and the determinants of fertility decline in particular. The Demographic Transition Theory (DTT), with a basic comparison of birth and death rates across developed countries, steered the literature on fertility change (Notestein 1945; Thompson 1929). The initial DTT framework drew sharp criticism due to its low predictive power in explaining the often highly heterogeneous trajectories of developing countries under often similar socioeconomic conditions (Teitebaum 1975). …