Dissecting the survivors – how the age of a club contributes to the ability of a team to maintain the top position in the European soccer leagues

Abstract

Summary Objectives To test the hypothesis that the age of a club is a major determinant of the higher survival rates exhibited by European soccer teams. News We studied 185 teams from the 2006/2007 season to the 2012/2013 season. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models. We also controlled for the age effect with variables suggested by the literature. These variables included transfer flows, the presence of the team at UEFA competitions (Champions League or Europa League), stadium attendance, and the percentage of national players. Prospect We observed that the age of the club is an important determinant in explaining the higher survival rates of the teams belonging to older clubs. More nuance was discovered when the teams were analyzed by professional league. Among English teams, the survival rate at the top is positively affected by having higher percentages of national players, higher transfer inflows, participation in UEFA competitions and higher stadium attendance. Stadium attendance is an important factor in keeping a team at the top, independent of the European league (with the exception of the French competition). French teams’ survival tends to benefit from the acquisition of players (proxied by higher transfer outflows). Although significant, the age effect nevertheless does not prevent young clubs (those founded within the last 50 years) from achieving first place. Young clubs that manage transfers well, have impressive stadium attendance, and are stimulated by UEFA participation tend to experience additional positive effects on their survival rate at the top. Conclusion The most robust results indicate that the age effect is a statistically significant determinant. Older clubs tend to benefit from four age-related dimensions: the relevance of assets, more efficient decision-making processes, monopolistic market power and the control of decisions by the executive board.