Abstract

This study examines uncertainty in access and access loss by measuring the relative and absolute differences in the number of reachable opportunities when catching public transit with the shortest and the longest wait times. An evaluation of uncertainty in access and access loss on both weekdays and weekends in the Washington Metropolitan Area yields three findings. First, the weekday-to-weekend service reduction disproportionately impacts Black, Millennial, low-income, and carless households. Second, the U.S. capital bears less uncertainty in access but more access loss than its neighboring counties. It is noticed that a quarter of the population resides in areas with high access uncertainty and high access loss; Asians and carless households, respectively, comprise the highest and the lowest shares. Third, there is a negative correlation between uncertainty in access and transit ridership. The findings also echo that transport equity should be approached through an intersectional lens as vulnerable groups often overlap.

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