Dispersal Kernels may be Scalable: Implications from a Plant Pathogen.

Abstract

Understanding how spatial scale of study affects observed dispersal patterns can provide insights into spatiotemporal population dynamics, particularly in systems with significant long-distance dispersal (LDD). We aimed to investigate the dispersal gradients of two rusts of wheat with spores of similar size, mass, and shape, over multiple spatial scales. We hypothesized that a single dispersal kernel could fit the dispersal from all spatial scales well, and that it would be possible to obtain similar results in spatiotemporal increase of disease when modeling based on differing scales. Central Oregon and St. Croix Island. Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, Triticum aestivum. We compared empirically-derived primary disease gradients of cereal rust across three spatial scales: local (inoculum source and sampling unit = 0.0254 m, spatial extent = 1.52m) field-wide (inoculum source = 1.52 m, sampling unit = 0.305 m, and spatial extent = 91.44 m), and regional (inoculum source and sampling unit = 152 m, spatial extent = 10.7 km). We then examined whether disease spread in spatially explicit simulations depended upon the scale at which data were collected by constructing a compartmental time-step model. The three data sets could be fit well by a single inverse-power law dispersal kernel. Simulating epidemic spread at different spatial resolutions resulted in similar patterns of spatiotemporal spread. Dispersal kernel data obtained at one spatial scale can be used to represent spatiotemporal disease spread at a larger spatial scale. Organisms spread by aerially dispersed small propagules that exhibit LDD may follow similar dispersal patterns over a several hundred- or thousand-fold expanse of spatial scale. Given that the primary mechanisms driving aerial dispersal remain constant, it may be possible to extrapolate across scales when empirical data are unavailable at a scale of interest.