Dispersal constraints on the potential distribution of cold‐adapted stag beetles (genus Platycerus) in Japan and the implications of climate change

Abstract

Abstract The effects of climate change on species distribution are typically inferred based on species distribution models (SDMs) that do not account for the dispersal ability of species. Here we investigated the utility of dispersal ability measures in predicting the distribution of 10 Platycerus species in Japan, which are cold‐adapted stag beetles sharing ecological and morphological features. We generated three SDMs based on environmental variables without dispersal constraint and incorporating two alternative dispersal constraint scenarios. We compared these three models with respect to SDM performance and the predicted degree of range overlap between neighbouring species. Using the best models among three SDMs, we predicted range shifts under climate change. Additionally, we characterised environmental differences among species distributional areas. Our results revealed that models incorporating dispersal constraints had better predictive performance. Platycerus delicatulus occupied a largest suitable habitat and P. sue had a narrow range in Japan. Most of Platycerus taxa in 2070 were predicted to lose large portions of present suitable areas. Moreover, environment was confirmed to affect the distribution of the targeted species. Incorporating dispersal ability to better understand the effects of climate change on the species ranges is a crucial step towards developing policies for insect management and conservation of vulnerable species.