Disparity and driving forces of energy consumption in China's provincial urban residential sector under the carbon neutrality target

Abstract

China's escalating urbanization contributes significantly to carbon emissions, necessitating an efficient, equitable decarbonization strategy in the urban residential sector. However, an overview of the regional-inequal implications underlying this sector’s carbon-neutral pathways is, to our knowledge, still pending. Here, we employ a province-level bottom-up technology optimization model to evaluate energy consumption implications and driving forces, particularly inter-provincial disparities, under various carbon neutrality pathways. We have observed that regional disparities in energy access are largely determined by different carbon cap allocation strategies. Additionally, energy intensity is the key factor influencing changes in energy consumption in scenarios of carbon neutrality compared to scenarios without carbon policies. Furthermore, energy intensity is linked to regional energy consumption disparities across scenarios, with short-term impacts mainly through energy intensity and long-term impacts through energy structure. The study presents a cost-minimizing, equitable carbon neutrality pathway for China's urban residential sector at the provincial level, highlighting that equitable carbon reduction policies promote provincial energy consumption equity compared to cost-efficient strategies. Additionally, the analysis offers guidance for formulating and implementing equitable energy transition policies.