“Disorder Yields to Order Fair the Place”: The emergence of political parties in Western and Central Europe

Abstract

SUMMARY In this article Professor Best writes as a social scientist interested in how historical data can be used statistically to test hypotheses about conflict structures. The study uses the voting data from the two Constituent Assemblies of 1848 in Paris and Frankfurt to test alternative theories about the development of conflict in democratic assemblies elected on universal male suffrage. One predicts that free elections would naturally generate complex conflict structures, the other that they would generate polarity around opposite extremes. The statistical model employed suggests that in these assemblies, where the basic issue was between the status quo and change, the pattern that emerged was one of polarisation.