Abstract
Can a small scale inflow of migrants affect electoral outcomes? We study whether the relocation of migrants from the Calais “Jungle” to temporary migrant-centers (CAOs) in France affected the results of the 2017 presidential election. Using an instrumental variables approach that relies on the size of holiday villages present in municipalities, we find that the presence of a CAO reduced the vote share increase of the far-right party (Front National) by about 15.7 percent. These effects, which dissipate spatially and depend on city characteristics and on the size of the inflow, point towards the contact hypothesis (Allport (1954)).
Highlights
Introduction and BackgroundIs there a link a between the recent migrant crisis and the raise of far-right votes in Europe? In the last years, the number of asylum applications in the European Union increased dramatically, from 431 thousand in 2013, to 627 thousand in 2014 and close to 1.3 million in 2015
We show the main estimates of the migrant relocation on voting shares of the Front National in the 2017 presidential election
First of all, based on the data provided by the CIMADE, we find that a municipality which received migrants in CAOs had on average 36 beds
Summary
Is there a link a between the recent migrant crisis and the raise of far-right votes in Europe? In the last years, the number of asylum applications in the European Union increased dramatically, from 431 thousand in 2013, to 627 thousand in 2014 and close to 1.3 million in 2015. Our calculations suggest that in municipalities that had over 39 beds per 1000 inhabitants the impact on the Front National vote outcome is positive This finding reconciles the fact that large inflows of immigrants contributed to the rise of Right wing parties as will be discussed in the following paragraphs. Our rich dataset allows us to explore how the results vary at the intensive margin (number of migrants) and depending on the characteristics of the population From this point of view, the threshold effect that we find (above 39 migrants per 1000 inhabitants, the Front National vote increases), reconciles it with findings on large inflows of migrants.
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