Abstract
While biological warfare has classically been considered a threat requiring the presence of a distinct biological agent, we argue that in light of the rise of state-sponsored online disinformation campaigns we are approaching a fifth phase of biowarfare with a “cyber-bio” framing. By examining the rise of measles cases following disinformation campaigns connected to the US 2016 presidential elections, the rise of disinformation in the current novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, and the impact of misinformation on public health interventions during the 2014-2016 West Africa and 2019-2020 Democratic Republic of the Congo Ebola outbreaks, we ask whether the potential impact of these campaigns—which includes the undermining of sociopolitical systems, the delegitimization of public health and scientific bodies, and the diversion of the public health response—can be characterized as analogous to the impacts of more traditional conceptions of biowarfare. In this paper, we look at these different impacts and the norms related to the use of biological weapons and cyber campaigns. By doing so, we anticipate the advent of a combined cyber and biological warfare. The latter is not dependent on the existence of a manufactured biological weapon; it manages to undermine sociopolitical systems and public health through the weaponization of naturally occurring outbreaks.
Highlights
Biological warfare has classically been viewed as an emergent threat arising from 4 distinct eras: pregerm theory, applied microbiology, industrial microbiology, and molecular biology and biotechnology.[1]
In light of today’s disinformation campaigns that target public health measures and institutions, and, given the rise of global antivaccination campaigns and the undermining of contemporary domestic and international responses to epidemics and pandemics, we suggest that we are entering into a fifth era of biowarfare, one that incorporates the use of cyber capabilities and does not depend on the existence of a manufactured biological weapon per se
All governments claim to have addressed the matter with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, no further formal indictments or actions have been made, as international legislation remains largely ill-equipped to combat these measures.[59]. Disinformation campaigns, including those identified in this article, have targeted the erosion and undermining of public trust in political and public health processes
Summary
Biological warfare has classically been viewed as an emergent threat arising from 4 distinct eras: pregerm theory, applied microbiology, industrial microbiology, and molecular biology and biotechnology.[1]. During the COVID-19 outbreak, US intelligence agencies and EU officials have attributed disinformation, including sustained social media posts claiming that the outbreak was caused by the United States, to Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns.[5] These active disinformation campaigns, combined with misinformation spread by social media, are likely to divert the course of the outbreak by amplifying mistrust of official reporting and the rejection of scientific evidence by the general public The course of this ‘‘infodemics,’’ propagating alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, must be seen as a dual pathway of harm: concerted disinformation campaigns using cyber warfare techniques herald a new fifth era of biowarfare phenomena. While the ongoing Russian disinformation campaign appears to be the most sophisticated and targeted example and has gained unprecedented attention, more and more literature and reports point toward other nation-states increasingly attempting to harness this tactic
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