Disentangling the Effects of Atmospheric and Soil Dryness on Autumn Phenology across the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

In recent decades, drought has intensified along with continuous global warming, significantly impacting terrestrial vegetation. High atmospheric water demand, indicated by vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and insufficient soil moisture (SM) are considered the primary factors causing drought stress in vegetation. However, the influences of VPD and SM on the autumn phenology are still unknown. Using satellite observations and meteorological data, we examined the impacts of VPD and SM on the end of the growing season (EOS) across the Northern Hemisphere (>30°N) from 1982 to 2022. We found that VPD and SM were as important as temperature, precipitation, and radiation in controlling the variations in the EOS. Moreover, the EOS was predominantly influenced by VPD or SM in more than one-third (33.8%) of the study area. In particular, a ridge regression analysis indicated that the EOS was more sensitive to VPD than to SM and the other climatic factors, with 25% of the pixels showing the highest sensitivity to VPD. In addition, the effects of VPD and SM on the EOS varied among biome types and climate zones. VPD significantly advanced the EOS in 25.8% of temperate grasslands, while SM had the greatest impact on advancing the EOS in 17.7% of temperate coniferous forests. Additionally, 27.7% of the midlatitude steppe (BSk) exhibited a significant negative correlation between VPD and the EOS, while 19.4% of the marine west coast climate (Cfb) showed a positive correlation between SM and the EOS. We also demonstrated that the correlation between VPD and the EOS was linearly affected by VPD and the leaf area index, while the correlation between SM and the EOS was affected by SM, precipitation, and the leaf area index. Our study highlights the importance of VPD and SM in regulating autumn phenology and enhances our understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change.