Disentangling sector and status effects in German employment growth

Abstract

From 1992 to 2006, part-time employment in western Germany has grown by 83%, whereas full-time employment has shrunk by 15%. In addition, employment schemes vary substantially across industries and industries which are themselves developed differently. The paper analyses the extent to which the divergence of status-specific employment can be explained by factors inherent in full-time or part-time employment (status effect) or by changes in the sectoral composition (sector effect). A regression-analogue shift–share model is estimated. Economic variables like unit labour costs and output gap are controlled. As a dynamic panel data model is specified, a bias-corrected least squares dummy variable estimator is used. In a second step, the fixed effects of the estimation into parameters for employment status and 16 sectors are decomposed. The results show that status-specific characteristics dominantly explain changes in employment patterns.