Abstract

Investigating the impact of ecological factors on sex‐ and age‐specific vital rates is essential to understand animal population dynamics and detect the potential for interactions between sympatric species. We used block count data and autoregressive linear models to investigate variation in birth rate, kid survival, female survival, and male survival in a population of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra monitored over 27 years within the Stelvio National Park, Central Italian Alps, as function of climatic variables, density dependence, and interspecific competition with red deer Cervus elaphus. We also used path analysis to assess the indirect effect of deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by each demographic parameter. Based on previous findings, we predicted that birth rate at [t] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t − 1]; survival rates between [t] and [t + 1] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t − 1] and to the interactive effect of winter precipitation at [t + 1] and chamois density at [t]. Our results showed that birth rate was positively related to spring–summer precipitation in the previous year, but this effect was hampered by increasing red deer abundance. Kid and female survival rates were negatively related to the combined effect of chamois abundance and winter precipitation. Male and female survival rates were negatively related to lagged red deer abundance. The path analysis supported a negative indirect effect of red deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by birth rate and female survival. Our results suggest that chamois population dynamics was largely explained by the synergistic effect of density dependence and winter harshness, as well as by interspecific competition with red deer, whose effects were seemingly stronger on the kid–female segment of the population.

Highlights

  • Investigating the dynamics of animal populations is essential to understand ecological processes and to optimize decision-­making in wildlife management and conservation (Gaillard et al, 1998; Lande et al, 2003)

  • We used block count data and autoregressive linear models to investigate variation in birth rate, kid survival, female survival, and male survival in a population of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra monitored over 27 years within the Stelvio National Park, Central Italian Alps, as function of climatic variables, density dependence, and interspecific competition with red deer Cervus elaphus

  • Our results suggest that chamois population dynamics was largely explained by the synergistic effect of density dependence and winter harshness, as well as by interspecific competition with red deer, whose effects were seemingly stronger on the kid–­female segment of the population

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Summary

| INTRODUCTION

Investigating the dynamics of animal populations is essential to understand ecological processes and to optimize decision-­making in wildlife management and conservation (Gaillard et al, 1998; Lande et al, 2003). In a recent study, Corlatti et al (2019) investigated the long-­ term dynamics of a chamois population in the Stelvio National Park (Central Italian Alps) and found that chamois growth rate between year [t] and [t + 1] was negatively related to red deer abundance at year [t − 1], as well as to the combination of winter precipitation at [t + 1] and chamois abundance at [t]. These biotic and abiotic drivers are expected to impact vital rates directly, eventually influencing population growth. Given the importance of interspecific competition in this population, we aim to verify the occurrence of an indirect negative effect of red deer abundance on chamois growth, and test whether this effect is mediated by birth rate, kid survival, adult female survival, or adult male survival (H5)

| MATERIALS AND METHODS
Findings
| DISCUSSION
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