Disease Vector Mapping Via Environmental, Climatological and Sociological Factors

Abstract

The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti serves as the primary urban vector for the virus that causes dengue, the most prevalent vector-borne viral disease on Earth. The probability of contracting dengue is modulated by climatic conditions that affect both Ae. aegypti development and the incubation period of dengue virus in adult mosquitoes, as well as socio-economic and human behavioral factors that enhance risk for vector-human contact and virus transmission. Vaccines or therapeutics are not yet available for use against dengue virus. Dengue virus infections often are asymptomatic, and there is an inherent delay between the onset date of dengue illness and the date the case is reported to the public health authorities. It is therefore critical to provide public health officials with a mechanism to better prepare in advance of an impending dengue epidemic. Here we describe a new decision support tool to inform public health planning and preparedness (e.g., the development of mosquito vector intervention strategies, garnering community awareness of dengue risk and support for control interventions). The tool, developed to be run in near-real-time, consists of a linkage of new and existing physically-based models that simulate 1) meteorological conditions over an area of interest; 2) the number and types of containers in a region (which are closely linked to socioeconomic and behavioral factors); 3) the temperature and volume of water in artificial container habitats in which Ae. aegypti develops; 4) the life cycle of the mosquito itself; and 5) the development of dengue virus and its transmission be of the mosquito itself; and 5) the development of dengue virus and its transmission between Ae. aegypti and humans.