Disease Modeling

Abstract

Mathematical models are essential components of the toolbox of any disease ecologist. They should be used as an integral part of any investigation into the impact and management of infectious disease in wildlife populations. Simple models are important to conceptualize the processes occurring during host–pathogen interactions and to identify key components of these interactions. More detailed models, specific to the system in question, can be developed later in an investigation and are essential for evaluating the consequences of alternative management actions. Various models of infectious disease dynamics are available to assist in managing disease in wildlife, including single-host and multihost models, and are discussed here. The basic reproductive number R 0, the number of secondary cases per primary case when disease is rare, can be derived from these models. This is a key concept in practical epidemiology, because eliminating a pathogen from a population entails reducing R 0 to below one and disease emergence can only occur if R 0 becomes greater than one.