Disease burden in Norway in 2050: A forecasting analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study

Abstract

Abstract Life expectancy in Norway has increased steadily in the past 50 years, in line with decreases in important causes and risk factors for premature mortality. However, due to the aging of the population, it is expected that a higher number will live with chronic diseases in the future. This will have implications for the planning of health services and public health work. The aim of this analysis was to forecast the disease burden in Norway up to 2050. The analyses were based on data on life expectancy and disease burden by 21 disease groups from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). The population was forecasted to get estimates on future size, age-composition and life expectancy up to 2050. Independent drivers of population health, in terms of sociodemographic factors and a selection of risk factors and preventive measures (e.g. vaccines) were included in the forecasting of general and cause-specific mortality. Non-fatal health loss was forecasted based on incidence/mortality ratios, or previous trends in disease development for causes not associated with mortality. Results are presented as rates, and compared with observed rates from the period 1990 to 2019. Both life expectancy and the proportion of elderly in Norway is forecasted to increase towards 2050. The decreasing trend in mortality and disease burden rates observed from 1990 to 2019 is, however, forecasted to turn, with a forecasted increase starting from 2020 and onward. Mortality due to cancers, neurological diseases and chronic respiratory diseases were forecasted to increase, while cardiovascular diseases were forecasted to contribute with decreased mortality in 2050. The non-fatal disease burden was forecasted to remain relatively stable. Aging of the population is the most important driver of future disease burden. Forecasting of disease burden by cause- and age-groups provides important background knowledge for planning of future health services and targeted health promotion.