Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China, where the initial wave of intense community transmissions was cut short by interventions. Using multiple data sources, here we estimate the disease burden and clinical severity by age of COVID-19 in Wuhan from December 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. Our estimates account for the sensitivity of the laboratory assays, prospective community screenings, and healthcare seeking behaviors. Rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were estimated at 796 (95% CI: 703–977), 489 (472–509), 370 (358–384), and 36.2 (35.0–37.3) per 100,000 persons, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan had a higher burden than the 2009 influenza pandemic or seasonal influenza in terms of hospitalization and mortality rates, and clinical severity was similar to that of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Our comparison puts the COVID-19 pandemic into context and could be helpful to guide intervention strategies and preparedness for the potential resurgence of COVID-19.
Highlights
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China, where the initial wave of intense community transmissions was cut short by interventions
We estimated the clinical severity of COVID-19 including the symptomatic case-fatality risk, medically attended case-fatality risk, hospitalizationfatality risk (HFR), symptomatic case-hospitalization risk, and medically attended case-hospitalization risk
We found that the mean rates of symptomatic cases, medical consultations, hospitalizations and deaths were respectively 796, 489, 370, and 36.2 per 100,000 persons in Wuhan from December 2019 to March 2020
Summary
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China, where the initial wave of intense community transmissions was cut short by interventions. Estimates of disease burden and clinical severity of COVID19 are critical to identify appropriate intervention strategies, plan for healthcare needs, and ensure the sustainability of the health system throughout the duration of the pandemic. Quantifying these estimates based on surveillance data is challenging due to changes in health seeking behaviors during the pandemic, as well as underdiagnoses of a novel pathogen. We used multiple data sources to estimate age-specific rates of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, medically attended cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, accounting for health seeking behaviors and underdiagnoses. We compared our estimates with those of the 1918 and 2009 influenza pandemics, and with seasonal influenza
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