Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague

Fabian Siuda,Uwe Sunde

doi:10.1007/s10887-020-09185-4

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that population shocks such as the repeated outbreaks of the plague affected the timing of the demographic transition. The empirical analysis uses disaggregate data from Germany and exploits geographic variation in the exposure to medieval plague shocks. The findings document that areas with greater exposure to plague outbreaks exhibited an earlier onset of the demographic transition. The results are consistent with the predictions of the unified growth literature and provide novel insights into the largely unexplored empirical determinants of the timing of the transition from stagnation to growth.

Highlights

The reason for development differences across countries and regions remains one of the long-standing questions in economics
Newer work based on ancient DNA analysis has been able to show that later European outbreaks of plague were caused by strains of Y. pestis that are related to the strains found in burial cites of victims of the 14th century Black Death (e.g., Bos et al 2016 report evidence for burial sites of victims of the outbreak of 1722 in Marseille, France, whereas Seifert et al 2016, report genetic similarities in aDNA of Y. pestis strains across different burial sites in Germany that span 300 years, and Spyrou et al 2016, report similarity of Y. pestis strains among plague victims of the Black Death in Barcelona and two subsequent historical outbreaks in Russia and Germany)
This paper presented an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that cities or regions that were more exposed to major population shocks related to the medieval plague experienced an earlier fertility transition

Summary

Introduction

The reason for development differences across countries and regions remains one of the long-standing questions in economics. Newer work based on ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis has been able to show that later European outbreaks of plague were caused by strains of Y. pestis that are related to the strains found in burial cites of victims of the 14th century Black Death (e.g., Bos et al 2016 report evidence for burial sites of victims of the outbreak of 1722 in Marseille, France, whereas Seifert et al 2016, report genetic similarities in aDNA of Y. pestis strains across different burial sites in Germany that span 300 years, and Spyrou et al 2016, report similarity of Y. pestis strains among plague victims of the Black Death in Barcelona and two subsequent historical outbreaks in Russia and Germany) This evidence supports the view of reoccurrence of the plague in Europe from local reservoirs, the location of these reservoirs is still debated.

Methods

Results

Conclusion