Discussion on Environmental Displaced Persons

Abstract

Due to the rising sea level caused by climate change, many island countries are in danger of disappearing because of the low altitude. The disappearance of the island countries will cause many people to become environmental displaced persons (EDP). Be homeless, life-threatening, and their precious culture will also face the risk of loss due to the migration of the people. To better solve and analyze the problem of climate refugees, this paper discuss it in several aspects. Firstly, build a three-dimensional roof model to simulate the shape of the island and predict the high degree of sea-level rise and the number of population by the end of 2020 of these island countries facing the risk of climate refugees through the grey prediction model. According to the model, calculate the area of island countries to be covered by rising sea level, so the number of EDPs caused by rising sea level in the world will be about 84951 by the end of 2020. Secondly, to analyze the risk of cultural loss quantitatively, this paper set up a model of the loss of cultural index (LCI). Eight main factors closely related to culture are selected to measure; besides, this paper set up life quality indicators (LQI), and use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of each factor in these two indicators. Also, this paper selected eight indicators closely related to the basic strength of the country from three aspects and obtained the receiving nations indicators (RNI) of refugee receiving countries by using the entropy weight method and variation coefficient method. Finally, after obtaining the weights of each indicator, this paper obtained the comprehensive evaluation indicators (CEI) by using the weighted average algorithm (WAA). Then take Tuvalu as an example to calculate CEI and test the model. This paper use a fuzzy cluster analysis to divide the refugee receiving countries into four categories: very suitable, suitable, general and not suitable for immigration. The results of fuzzy cluster analysis also verify the correctness and rationality of our above evaluation indexes: LCI, LQI, RNI. Fourthly, use the CNP scoring model to quantitatively analyze whether different refugee receiving countries focus on human rights protection or cultural protection. When the CNP score is lower than 2.95, the policy formulation of the refugee receiving country should pay more attention to the human rights protection of EDP, when the score is higher than 3.31, it should pay more attention to cultural protection, and when the score is between 2.95-3.31, it should pay equal attention to both aspects. Finally, devise a set of policies based on the analysis of the results from our model. This paper emphasize that it is up to international organizations such as the United Nations to adjust the arrangement and guidance of EDPs to each country through CEI, CNP scoring model, and the will and tendency between the refugee country and the receiving country. In the end, do a sensitivity analysis of the Model and discuss strengths and weaknesses.