Discussion of the Effect of Forecast Redundancy on Judgments of a Consensus Forecast's Expected Accuracy

Abstract

Maines explores the impact of data characteristics on judgments of consensus forecasts' accuracy. The data features studied are the accuracy and redundancy of the individual forecasts being combined. Although Maines' experimental work focuses on sales and EPS forecasting tasks, the impact of data characteristics on the use of data in judgment and decision making is an important issue in many accounting and managerial contexts. Thus, the implications of this study go beyond the particular contexts chosen for illustration. Conference discussion revolved primarily around the issues of hypothesis development, external validity, research design, and interpretation of results. My discussion is also organized around these issues.