Abstract
The paper attempts to chart a path through some of the more commonly used methods of claim reserving, starting from the simple chain ladder. A critical evaluation of the weaknesses of each is made by reference to a particular example, leading to the next method of the series. In the course of this survey one novel approach occurs quite naturally as the logical extension of a particular series, but this is itself found to be inadequate. The main thrust of the paper is to direct attention to the study of the joint distribution of claim by size and settlement time in reserving, and certain original data are adduced in order to exemplify claim development properties which where applicable are of considerable assistance in understanding the experience of ‘incomplete’ years, and extrapolating this to reserves.
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