Abstract
Atherosclerosis is the early stage of arterial disease, and underlies development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and stroke. Although sophisticated models for assessing CVD and stroke risk have been derived based on large-scale prospective studies, their abilities in detecting the presence or absence of atherosclerotic plaque have not been investigated. This study aimed to evaluate and compare discriminatory and risk stratifying abilities of 13 CVD risk assessment models against the ultrasound detection of carotid plaques in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. Forty-nine T2DM subjects were recruited with informed consent, and major anthropomorphic and biomarker data for these models were collected. The model risk scores were evaluated against the carotid plaques detected by Doppler ultrasound. Only the FHS-Lpts-CHD-10Y model, which is a variant of the Framingham model, revealed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) that was significantly different from a random scoring approach (AUROC: 0.681, p was able to stratify the risk levels of carotid plaque presence (Chi-Square statistic: 5.99, p
Highlights
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an increasingly common and severe problem worldwide
This paper focuses on thirteen cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment models derived from these three well-renowned studies, which were all performed in Western populations
The aims of this study were to evaluate and compare the discriminatory ability of thirteen CVD risk assessment models derived from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) studies against the presence of carotid plaque, and to verify the ability for predicting the likelihood of carotid plaque presence using the model with the strongest discriminatory ability
Summary
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an increasingly common and severe problem worldwide. The major cause of death in T2DM patients is cardiovascular disease (CVD), and the relationship between T2DM and CVD is so strong that T2DM is regarded as a “risk equivalent” to a previous coronary event. T2DM patients are recognized to be high risk subjects. The underlying cause of CVD is atherosclerosis in coronary and carotid arteries. There are many factors apart from diabetes that are associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and elevated risk of CVD. These include hypertension, inflammation, obesity and dyslipidemia [1,2]
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