Discrete-time Markov chain for prediction of air quality index

Abstract

Together with water and land, air is a fundamental necessity of life. Nevertheless, the ambient air quality is deteriorating around the world because of rapid urbanization and industrialization. The problem of air pollution has become a prominent issue for the public and academia. In fact, the public is more interested in being informed about the possibility of occurrence of air pollution episodes than the accurate forecasting of a specific pollutant. Therefore, this study proposes a process based upon discrete-time Markov chains (DTMC), to predict the air quality index (AQI) and identify the prime air pollutants in a specific area. This study utilizes online air quality monitoring data retrieved from the Taiwan Environment Protection Administration, to demonstrate the application of the process. The findings of the study revealed that there are three prime air pollutants, namely ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and fine particulate matter (PM10), which frequently contaminate the ambient air in Taipei city. Furthermore, this study used data for three time periods to verify the proposed process and found that the performance of the process in predicting the AQI values for 7 days is better than the prediction for 30 days and 62 days.