Discrete plant-location decisions in an applied general-equilibrium model of trade liberalization

Abstract

Discrete Plant-Location Decisions in an Applied General-Equilibrium Model of Trade Liberalization. - This paper makes a first step toward a more realistic approach to increasing-returns trade models in which firms face discrete choices about the numbers and locations of their plants. The model is applied to the North American auto industry in the NAFTA context. Results include: (1) production appears to be excessively geographically diversified initially; (2) autos are produced in fewer locations as trade barriers are lowered; (3) a “non-monotonicity“ case is produced in which a plant is first closed and then reopened as trade barriers are progressively lowered; (4) an example of the misleading nature of marginalist analysis is presented in which plants in Canada and Mexico increase production when locations are fixed but close down when locations are endogenous and optimized.