Discrete and continuous state population models in a noisy world

Abstract

Simple ecological models operate mostly with population densities using continuous variables. However, in reality densities could not change continuously, since the population itself consists of integer numbers of individuals. At first sight this discrepancy appears to be irrelevant, nevertheless, it can cause large deviations between the actual statistical behaviour of biological populations and that predicted by the corresponding models. We investigate the conditions under which simple models, operating with continuous numbers of individuals can be used to approximate the dynamics of populations consisting of integer numbers of individuals. Based on our definition for the (statistical) distance between the two models we show that the continuous approach is acceptable as long as sufficiently high biological noise is present, or, the dynamical behaviour is regular (non-chaotic). The concepts are illustrated with the Ricker model and tested on the Tribolium castaneum data series (Henson et al., Science 294 (2001) 602.). Further, we demonstrate with the help of T. castaneum's model that if time series are not much larger than the possible population states (as in this practical case) the noisy discrete and continuous models can behave temporarily differently, almost independently of the noise level. In this case the noisy, discrete model is more accurate [OR has to be applied].