Discrepancies between the Spatial Distribution of Cancer Incidence and Mortality as an Indicator of Unmet Needs in Cancer Prevention and/or Treatment in Hungary.

Abstract

There is a rich body of literature on the distribution of cancer incidence and mortality in socioeconomically different world regions, but none of the studies has compared the spatial distribution of mortality and incidence to see if they are consistent with each other. All malignant neoplasms combined and cervical, colorectal, breast, pancreatic, lung, and oral cancers separately were studied in the Hungarian population aged 25-64 years for 2007-2018 at the municipality level by sex. In each case, the spatial distribution of incidence and mortality were compared with each other and with the level of deprivation using disease mapping, spatial regression, risk analysis, and spatial scan statistics. A positive association between deprivation and mortality was found for each type of cancer, but there was no significant association for male colorectal cancer (relative risk (RR) 1.00; 95% credible interval (CI) 0.99-1.02), pancreatic cancer (RR: 1.01; 95%CI 0.98-1.04), and female colorectal cancer incidence (RR: 1.01; 95%CI 0.99-1.03), whereas a negative association for breast cancer (RR: 0.98; 95%CI 0.96-0.99) was found. Disease mapping analyses showed only partial overlap between areas of high incidence and mortality, often independent of deprivation. Our results highlight not only the diverse relationship between cancer burden and deprivation, but also the inconsistent relationship between cancer incidence and mortality, pointing to areas with populations that require special public health attention.