Discovering causal models for structural, construction and defense-related engineering phenomena

Abstract

Causality, the science of cause and effect, has made it possible to create a new family of models. Such models are often referred to as causal models. Unlike those of mathematical, numerical, empirical, or machine learning (ML) nature, causal models hope to tie the cause(s) to the effect(s) pertaining to a phenomenon (i.e., data generating process) through causal principles. This paper presents one of the first works at creating causal models in the area of structural and construction engineering. To this end, this paper starts with a brief review of the principles of causality and then adopts four causal discovery algorithms, namely, PC (Peter-Clark), FCI (fast causal inference), GES (greedy equivalence search), and GRaSP (greedy relaxation of the sparsest permutation), have been used to examine four phenomena, including predicting the load-bearing capacity of axially loaded members, fire resistance of structural members, shear strength of beams, and resistance of walls against impulsive (blast) loading. Findings from this study reveal the possibility and merit of discovering complete and partial causal models. Finally, this study also proposes two simple metrics that can help assess the performance of causal discovery algorithms.