Discouragement effect and alternative formats to increase suspense in professional biathlon

Abstract

ABSTRACT Research Question The paper analyzes mass start competitions in professional biathlon, where 30 biathletes start simultaneously. This structure allows us to test the existence of discouragement effect, according to which biathletes reduce their efforts when lagging far behind the leaders. Research Methods We use data on all 180 mass start competitions, for both genders, in World Cups, World Championships, and Olympic Games between the 2001/02 and 2019/20 seasons, and compare the gap times between the two consecutive ranks. For the same period, we execute the same analyses for all sprint and individual competitions that use interval starts. Results and Findings We find that, in mass starts, the 95% confidence intervals of the gap times between the two consecutive ranks overlap in the range of rankings between 3 and 25 among men and between 5 and 24 among women, with mean gaps of 6.6 and 7.7 seconds among men and women, respectively. However, that gap increases sharply for the four bottom ranks (that is, ranks 27–30), which have mean gaps of 29.8 and 31.2 sec among men and women, respectively. However, in sprint and individual races, the lag time between two consecutive ranks does not exceed 4 (sprint) and 10 (individual) seconds in the range of rankings between 10 and 60. Implications The results suggest that bottom-ranked biathletes in mass starts strategically reduce their efforts when there is nothing at stake. Such a strategy increases the duration of TV broadcasts and does not help maximize suspense, which is one of the main drivers of TV demands in professional sports. We offer an alternative format, according to which a certain number of the bottom-ranked biathletes will be eliminated after each bout of shooting. Such a format should dramatically increase the suspense-to-time ratio.