Disconfirming Expectations: Incorrect Imprecise (vs. Precise) Estimates Increase Source Trustworthiness and Consumer Loyalty

Abstract

Estimations that include numerical information are ubiquitous in our daily lives, for example, housing prices, calories, etc. In the present work, we investigate how the type of information used in an estimate, particularly its level of imprecision, influences evaluations of source trustworthiness after the target value of the estimate is revealed. Specifically, building upon prior work suggesting that (a) imprecise estimates are perceived to be less accurate than precise estimates and (b) performing below expectations results in negative source evaluations, we hypothesize that if the estimate is revealed to be incorrect, imprecise estimates (i.e., 400) elicit higher source trustworthiness than precise estimates (i.e., 417), even if the imprecise estimate is objectively more incorrect (i.e., target value: 570). In addition, we find that this effect also influences consumers’ loyalty toward the source of the estimate. Four studies and a single‐paper meta‐analysis offer triangulating evidence for this prediction and its underlying psychological mechanism. Overall, this work contributes to research on estimates, source evaluations, numerical information, and the influence of errors on consumer behavior.