Disasters, population trends, and their impact on the U.S. pork packing sector

Abstract

In 2020, disruptions and risks from COVID-19 led to meatpacking plant shutdowns and reductions in total slaughter relative to 2019. Debate emerged surrounding the vulnerability of the packing industry and whether larger plants were more prone to reductions in slaughter compared to smaller plants. Using a novel panel dataset of 40 major U.S. hog slaughter plants, we estimate packers’ propensities to reduce production relative to their normal operational capacity, controlling for plant characteristics, local labor conditions, and severe weather events. We find larger plants are, on average, more likely to reduce daily slaughter and that an increase in plant physical capacity leads to an increase in the quantity reduced. However, we do not find a statistically significant relationship between plant capacity and shutdowns. We find strong evidence that factors indirectly limiting labor availability—the average number of COVID-19 cases, the location of plants in population-loss areas, and the presence of a severe weather event—increase slaughter reductions. These findings suggest physical capacity is not the only factor influencing processing rates and highlight existing vulnerabilities to labor shortages.