Disaster Flood Scenario: Case Study of the Uh River at Lekárovce (Slovakia)

Abstract

The occurrence of extreme floods in several river basins of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe over the last thirty years has drawn the attention of the public (as well as the competent authorities) to the problems of flood protection. Although the development and operational use of non-structural measures (such as flood forecasting and warning systems), represents one of the effective flood protection measures, the structural means (flood protection, levees, flood control reservoirs) are of great importance, too. Especially in the upper parts of the river basin, where the time between the detection of the causes of the flood (heavy rainfall) and its consequence (flood) is short and does not affect the effective protective activity (e.g. evacuation). Over the last 30 years, flood protections have been built along the Uh River (Slovakia, Ukraine) to protect the environment from floods. These dams adversely affected the storage capacity of water in the basin. This resulted in flood flows increase on the lower sections of the Uh River in Slovakia. These facts need to be demonstrated by the need to evaluate the proposed design values for those sections. The study presents an analysis of the long-term flood regime of the river Uh in the section Uzhhorod (Ukraine) - Lekárovce (Slovakia). The first part analyses the trend changes in the time series of maximum annual discharge Qmax in the stations Lekárovce and Uzhhorod on the basis of the observed Qmax data in these profiles (period 1931-2019). These Qmax series were subsequently used to estimate the maximum T-year discharge at the Lekárovce station for the changed conditions of the Uzhhorod - Lekárovce section. Using these derived data and the observed form of the summer flood hydrograph from July 1980, a 100-year flood scenario was developed for the Uh River in Lekárovce. The achieved results indicate a further increase in flood risk in Lekárovce.