Abstract
This paper discusses the main achievements of DISARM (Drought and fIre ObServatory and eArly waRning system) project, which developed an early warning system for wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean. The four pillars of this system include (i) forecasting wildfire danger, (ii) detecting wildfires with remote sensing techniques, (iii) forecasting wildfire spread with a coupled weather-fire modeling system, and (iv) assessing the wildfire risk in the frame of climate change. Special emphasis is given to the innovative and replicable parts of the system. It is shown that for the effective use of fire weather forecasting in different geographical areas and in order to account for the local climate conditions, a proper adjustment of the wildfire danger classification is necessary. Additionally, the consideration of vegetation dryness may provide better estimates of wildfire danger. Our study also highlights some deficiencies of both EUMETSAT (Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) and LSA-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis) algorithms in their skill to detect wildfires over islands and near the coastline. To tackle this issue, a relevant modification is proposed. Furthermore, it is shown that IRIS, the coupled atmosphere-fire modeling system developed in the frame of DISARM, has proven to be a valuable supporting tool in fire suppression actions. Finally, assessment of the wildfire danger in the future climate provides the necessary context for the development of regional adaptation strategies to climate change.
Highlights
Extreme wildfire events have affected many areas around the world over the past decades, causing casualties, and extensive damages to livestock, infrastructure, and the ecosystem
We will: (i) Discuss the representativeness of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI) thresholds utilized worldwide for the specific weather and climate conditions of each country participating in DISARM, (ii) assess the skill of a complex index developed for Bulgaria that accounts for the soil moisture deficit, and (iii) discuss the challenges related to monthly-scale forecasting of fire danger
The results showed that the proposed CFWI thresholds were capable of: (i) Increasing the overall accuracy by a factor of 1.9–2.6, (ii) reducing the excessive overestimation of wildfire danger associated with the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) ones, and (iii) Ssuigstnaiinfaicbialintytl2y02i0n, c1r2e, 6a6s7i0ng the reliability regarding the danger classification
Summary
Extreme wildfire events have affected many areas around the world over the past decades, causing casualties (civilians and fire respondents), and extensive damages to livestock, infrastructure, and the ecosystem. Given the high dependence of wildfires on weather and climate [12], many studies have focused their interest in various fields such as: The assessment of the expected changes of fire risk, the potential for large wildfires, the expected impacts on fire intensity and occurrence, wildfire suppression, and burned areas These studies are mainly based on the analysis of climate model simulations under various emission scenarios [13,14,15,16]. It’s ultimate aim was to assist the authorities in better preventing, addressing, and mitigating the adverse impacts of wildland fires, and by taking note of their intensification due to climate change In this context, the overall objective was to deliver an innovative, integrated observation and early warning system that may serve as a key tool for protecting the environment and, for promoting sustainable development in the vulnerable region of the southeast Mediterranean. The following four sections present the four main pillars of the DISARM early warning system, while the last one is dedicated to conclusions and future prospects
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
