Direct and Indirect Macroeconomic Effects of Malaria in Senegal

Abstract

Malaria constitutes, beyond a public health problem, a major challenge for the development of endemic countries. The objective of this study is to estimate the economic cost of malaria in Senegal. A logarithmic double model with interaction effect is used and estimated, using a time series data from 1995 to 2019, by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. At the macroeconomic level, when malaria morbidity increases by 1%, GDP per capita falls by 0.00467. Applied to total GDP, this corresponds to an average annual loss of US $ 108 million. In addition, the study shows a decrease of the labour factor impact when taking into account the interaction effect of malaria. In fact, in the case of a 1% increase in malaria, the contribution resulting from a 1% increase in the labour force decreases by 0.48 point. Such consequences due to malaria can lead in the long run to adverse effects on economic growth and on efforts to fight poverty in Senegal.