Abstract
Storm surge disaster is one of the biggest threats to coastal areas. Over the years, it has brought serious losses to the economy and environment of China’s coastal areas. In this paper, Guangdong Province is taken as the research object to evaluate the damage caused by storm surge disasters. First of all, regarding the three-industry classification standards of the National Bureau of Statistics, combined with the storm surge disaster assessment index system, the 10-sector storm surge disaster loss input-output table is compiled and analyzed. Secondly, the indirect economic losses of storm surge disasters between 2007–2017 are determined by calculating the direct and indirect consumption coefficients. Thirdly, based on the static input-output model, considering the time factor, the dynamic input-output model of storm surge disaster assessment is established to calculate the cumulative output loss under different recovery periods (30 days, 90 days, 120 days, 180 days, 360 days). The results indicate that: (1) the losses, after a storm surge, in the agricultural economy have the greatest impact on the manufacturing sector, and conversely, they have less effect on the science, education and health service sectors; as well as the construction sector; (2) taking the industry with the biggest loss ratio as an example, the recovery of damaged industries is relatively rapid in the early stage and tends to be stable in the later stage of recovery; (3) the total output loss calculated using the static input-output model is greater than that computed using the dynamic input-output model. Researching the assessment of the direct and indirect loss due to storm surge disasters is of great value and practical significance for the scientific and rational planning of the country’s production layout, the maintenance of social and economic stability and the protection of life and property.
Highlights
The coastal areas of the world are home to more than 60% of the world’s population, with people living in large and medium-sized cities located within a range of less than 100 km from the coastline
(3) According to the input-output table in 2007, indirect economic loss accounted for 73.14% of the 4.1
The direct economic loss caused by storm surge in Guangdong Province amounted to USD 7.8 billion in 2017
Summary
The coastal areas of the world are home to more than 60% of the world’s population, with people living in large and medium-sized cities located within a range of less than 100 km from the coastline. Storm surge disasters have had a serious impact on the social and economic development in the coastal areas in China, and especially on marine economic security [20]. The methods of estimating the indirect economic loss due to disasters include system dynamics, econometrics, input-output, production function and general equilibrium modeling. The input-output model is seldom applied in the field of indirect losses from storm surges and no comparative study on Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW the static and dynamic input-output model was found. 6, the total loss: L = Li. To connect the whole process of social reproduction through fixed capital formation, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the quantity, structure and effect of fixed capital formation, and introduce the coefficient to establish a dynamic input and output model. T=0 where xit means the sector output value in unit time t
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