Abstract
espanolEl presente articulo tiene como objetivo modelar las variables de oferta, demanda y stock del mercado del cafe verde colombiano comercializado como commodity. A partir de estas variables se formula un modelo de sistemas dinamicos usando ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias, las cuales permiten observar el comportamiento del mercado de este producto. El analisis realizado tiene en cuenta algunos parametros, como las tasas de exportacion e importacion, estimados a partir de datos historicos sobre el mercado del cafe, los cuales fueron reportados por las entidades oficiales. En el documento se muestra la formulacion del modelo, seguido por el calculo de los puntos de equilibrio y su estabilidad. Por ultimo, se presenta la simulacion de las variables de estado. EnglishThe objective of this paper is to model the supply, demand and stock variables of the Colombian green coffee market commercialized as a commodity. Based on these variables, a model of dynamic systems is formulated using ordinary differential equations, which allow observing the behavior of the Colombian coffee market. The analysis takes into account some parameters, such as export and import rates, estimated from historical data on the coffee market reported by official entities. The document shows the formulation of the model, followed by the calculation of the equilibrium points and their stability. Finally, simulation of state variables is presented.
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