Dilemmas of the Kenyan succession

Abstract

Under weight of a diversity of pressures, Daniel Arap Moi has announced his forthcoming retirement from the presidency. The resultant succession dilemma which dominates Kenyan politics is accentuated by endemic corruption, economic decline and increasing popular antipathy to the KANU regime. Yet even in the facing of deepening crisis, the balance of forces favour the government's capacity to frustrate democratisation. Its control of state resources, its increasing resort to informal repression and the reluctance of western powers to encourage a de‐stabilisation all imply that the country's present rulers retain enormous reserve powers. A ‘second‐best’ solution, which provides negotiated shelter for those who have gained by corruption or who have abused human rights may therefore prove to be the most workable way to avoid a resort to armed resistance by present power‐holders and pave the way towards a democratic transition.