Dike Breach Risks of Different Flood Conditions in the Lower Yellow River

Abstract

Abstract Based on the analysis of hanging rivers’ actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks, it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the lower Yellow River should involve four aspects, the flow and sediment movement, the regional crustal stability, the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes. With this, the evaluation indexes system of dike breach risks is established, and with the support of geographic information systems technology, the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment is applied to estimate the dike beach risks of the hanging rivers in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions. The evaluation results of dike breach risks show the following distributing regularities of dike breach risks in the lower Yellow River: (1) Dike breach risks increase with the increase of the flood. (2) Dike breach risks decrease with the changes of river patterns along the channel. (3) ...