Digitalised ECG measure of p-wave duration predicts incident heart failure

Abstract

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Uppsala University Hospital Background and purpose Early identification of patients at risk of congestive heart failure (HF) may potentially alter their poor prognosis. The aim was therefore to test whether the P-wave and PR-interval, simple non-invasive ECG measures reflecting systolic and diastolic atrial function, could predict incident HF. Methods The PIVUS (Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Seniors) study including all individuals aged 70 years (1016 individuals, 50% women) was used to identify predictors of HF. Subjects with prevalent HF, QRS duration ≥ 130 msec or atrial arrhythmias on baseline ECG were excluded. Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to relate P-wave duration (Pdur), amplitude (Pamp) and PR interval in lead V1, to incident HF. Adjustment was performed for gender, RR-interval, beta-blocking agents, systolic blood pressure, body mass index and smoking. Results A total of 107 of 836 (12,8%) subjects at risk, developed HF during 15 years follow-up. The multivariate analysis, showed a strong U-shaped correlation between Pdur and incident HF (p=0.0001), which was significant for a Pdur< 60 msec [HR 2.75 (95% CI 1.87-4.06) at Pdur 40 msec]. There was no significant relationship between incident HF and the PR-interval, or the Pamp. A Pdur<60 msec improved discrimination by 3.7% when added to the confounders described above (p=0.048). Conclusions A short P-duration, a simple and easy ECG measure, may potentially be a useful predictor of developing HF, enabling early detection and treatment of HF.