Digital payment and banking stability in emerging economy with dual banking system

Abstract

Previous studies provided limited conclusions on the relationship between digital payment and financial stability, particularly in an emerging economy with a dual banking system in which Islamic banking operates in parallel with its conventional counterpart, such as Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of digitalisation on financial stability, particularly banking stability, in Indonesia. It uses Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models to investigate the relationship using monthly data during December 2013–July 2021 period. The digital payment transaction is proxied by payment penetration ratio (PPR); meanwhile financial stability is proxied by the value of Z-Score for the Indonesian banking industry. It also conducts a robustness check using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study found a cointegrating relationship between PPR and Z-Score, suggesting that digital payment transactions have an equilibrium and long-run relationship with banking stability in Indonesia. Further examination shows a one-direction causality from digital payment to banking stability and a positive short-run relationship between the variables. Interestingly, despite being the largest Muslim country globally, the estimation result shows no significant causality between digital payment and Islamic banking stability in Indonesia. While this might be due to the small size of Islamic banking in the country, it is expected that the impact will be more significant as Islamic digital banking starts to emerge and gain strong support from society and government in the post-covid period. Overall, our findings support policies promoting a more supportive regulatory ecosystem for a resilient banking and financial system in an emerging economy with a dual banking system.