Digit preference in year at menopause: Data from the study of women's health across the nation

Abstract

PURPOSE: To assess possible digit preference in self-reported year at natural menopause, and to determine whether equal proportions is an appropriate reference distribution.METHODS: Data are from the cross-sectional telephone interview from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a multi-site, multi-ethnic study of women aged 40–55. Analyses included 2151 naturally menopausal respondents, who were asked the year their periods stopped. Using a chi-square test, we compared the distribution of the terminal digit for year of final menstrual period (FMP) to an equal proportions (EP) distribution assigning 10% probability of each of the 10 digits. Departures from EP, however, may be accurate and may reflect the observed age distribution of subjects rather than digit preference. Thus, we stratified by year of interview to determine if the distribution was the same across years—suggesting digit preference—or if it varied systematically. We then estimated an expected distribution of terminal digit for year of FMP, using prospectively collected data (not subject to digit preference or recall bias) from the Massachusetts Women's Health Study, applied to the SWAN age distribution. The SWAN terminal digit distribution was compared with this expected distribution.RESULTS: Terminal digit for year at FMP exhibited a strong departure from EP (χ2 = 841.60, p < 0.001), with highest frequencies for digits 4 and 5. Stratifying by year of interview, the distribution was shifted one digit in 1997 compared with 1996, consistent with unbiased reporting. Using the expected distribution as the reference reduced the chi-square statistic by a factor of 7 (χ2 = 119.51, p < 0.001).CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of terminal digits for reported year at FMP was far from uniform, but departures from EP were consistent with results expected from an independent prospective study. These results suggest that EP may not be an appropriate reference for studies of digit preference, particularly those with a restricted age range.