Diffusion of grid-connected PV in India: An analysis of variations in capacity factor

Abstract

This paper analyses variations in capacity factor on diffusion of solar PV in the context of National Solar Mission announced by the Government of India. The capacity factor is evaluated by considering meteorological conditions and choice of technology. A mathematical model is developed to determine the capacity factor considering cell efficiency, solar irradiance and local temperature. The output of the model is used as input for determining cost of generated electricity. Simulation is performed for a 1MWp grid connected PV plant by considering daily average hourly solar irradiance and temperature variation. With a view to achieve a vision of PV diffusion in India, the present work includes system data for representative places located in different latitudes. Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) determined by various states for grid connected PV is compared with cost of electricity generated obtained from simulation. The cost of electricity generated from solar PV is found to vary between 26 ¢/kWh and 33 ¢/kWh based on the capacity factor. This comparison helps to bridge the gap between FiT and actual cost based on capacity factor by way of additional incentives for a fixed period. This analysis would be useful for utilities/states to assess the diffusion of PV power into the grid and determine tariff based on meteorological parameters. The reduction in CO 2 emission is computed for various locations considering the actual generation mix. Analysis is also carried out to determine the growth of cells and module manufacturing capacity in India for 2022. Simulation result indicate that the present high growth rate (>30%) for both cells and modules is sufficient to achieve the target set by the National Solar Mission. This paper also discusses briefly about National Solar Mission and status of grid connected PV power in India.