Diffusion of Authoritarian and Democratic Rule through Inter-State Networks: Co-Evolution Analysis with Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models

Abstract

Country-pairs with diplomatic relations tend to resemble each other with respect to their degree of institutionalized autocracy and democracy. This could be the result of a diffusion effect: the political regimes of connected countries become more similar over time. However, the same observation could be the result of countries’ selection of diplomatic partners that are already similar. I test both explanations from a social network perspective, using stochastic actor-oriented co-evolution models. I find support for the explanation that institutionalized democracy diffuses via diplomatic connections. In contrast, institutionalized autocracy appears to be driven much more via spatial contiguity than through diplomatic ties. Support for an autocracy-based selection effect is found but it is limited to very autocratic countries selecting each other. The results are inconclusive as to whether an independent selection effect for democracy induces the observable similarity of diplomatic partners’ democracy levels.