Diffuse fraction of UV radiation under partly cloudy skies as defined by the Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS)

Abstract

A major limitation in predicting the ultraviolet‐B (UVB) irradiance on organisms is the difficulty in determining the UVB under partly cloudy sky conditions. This study developed models for estimating the diffuse fraction of ultraviolet‐A (UVA) and UVB radiation under partly cloudy skies based on National Weather Service (NWS) cloud cover measurements and Department of Agriculture (USDA) UVB Radiation Monitoring and Research Network UV radiation measurements made from 1997 through 1999 at nine locations in the United States. The UVB diffuse fraction and the difference between clear and partly cloudy sky diffuse fraction were empirically modeled as a function of solar zenith angle and cloud fraction with a resulting mean bias error (MBE) of 0.019 and 0.014, respectively, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.069 and 0.079, respectively. A semiempirical model was also evaluated where the diffuse fraction was treated as the summation of clear and overcast sky diffuse fractions, respectively, weighted by the probability of the Sun's direct beam being obstructed or not for a given cloud cover fraction. This model MBE was less than 0.01 of both the UVA and UVB wave bands, while the RMSE was 0.035 within the UVB wave band and −0.030 in the UVA wave band. Model errors were greatest for low solar zenith angles and high cloud fractions in the UVB. The cloud fraction measurements used in these models only include clouds up to 3.6 km. Consequently, they should only be used when the cloud information has the same characteristics.