Abstract
This paper describes a study of a recent doomsday group and discusses the methodological problems which made this study an abortive attempt to test the proselyting hypothesis of Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter (1956). These problems included: unequivocally determining whether the doomsday group met the dissonance-theory specifications, demonstrating a change in the level of proselyting, difficulties typical of field-study research which stemmed from limitations of time, inaccessibility of information, and the occurrence of an unexpected and uncontrolled event. Two conclusions were drawn. (a) The required antecedent conditions for the post-disconfirmation proselyting effect are so numerous, qualitative and nonoperationally defined that they are unlikely to be met. (b) These problems, when compounded by the inevitable group differences which arise in field study, suggest that a valid and reliable negative research outcome regarding the proselyting hypothesis of dissonance theory is also unlikely. In other words, the proselyting hypothesis may not be disconfirmable—a prophecy which cannot fail.
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