Difficult choices: choosing the candidate of the nation alliance in the 2023 Turkish presidential election

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Turkish presidential election in 2023 marked a pivotal moment for the ruling Justice and Development Party and Erdoğan, grappling with criticism over their handling of the economic crisis. Six parties formed the Nation Alliance to challenge the incumbent, but negotiations for the alliance’s presidential candidate collapsed, leading to the breakdown of the alliance. This study analyzes the divided opposition and its difficulty in nominating a likeable candidate as another reason for the continuation of President Erdoğan’s rule. A Response Surface Analysis (RSA) approach is utilized to describe the potential outcomes of the options that opposition parties considered regarding their presidential candidate. The analysis shows that the leader of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, was weaker in appealing to the centre-right wing voters of the alliance partner, the Good Party, yet fared better in gathering the support of the Kurdish voter base of the Peoples’ Democratic Party.