Differentiated Spatial-Temporal Flood Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Lowland Plains in Eastern Uganda

Abstract

This study was conducted to map flood inundation areas along the Manafwa River, Eastern Uganda using HECRAS integrated with the SWAT model. The study mainly sought to evaluate the predictive capacity of SWAT by comparisons with streamflow observations and to derive, using HECRAS, the flood inundation maps. Changes in Land-use/cover showed by decrease in forest areas and wetlands, and conversions into farmlands and built-up areas from 1995 to 2017 have resulted in increased annual surface runoff, sediment yield, and water yield. Flood frequency analysis for 100-, 50-, 10-, and 5-year return periods estimated peak flows of 794, 738, 638, and 510 m3/s, respectively, and total inundated areas of 129, 111, 101, and 94 km2, respectively. Hazard classification of flood extent indicated that built-up areas and commercial farmlands are highly vulnerable, subsistence farmlands are moderately to highly vulnerable, and bushland, grassland, tropical high forest, woodland, and wetland areas are very low to moderately vulnerable to flooding. Results demonstrated the usefulness of combined modeling systems in predicting the extent of flood inundation, and the developed flood risk maps will enable the policy makers to mainstream flood hazard assessment in the planning and development process for mitigating flood hazards.